Michael Dubb claim Analyze the Odds wins Mike Lee at 20-1

Monday, May 28th, 2018

NYRA/Annette Jasko

By Bill Heller

Talk about a quick return on an investment.

Michael Dubb, who plays the claiming game in New York as good as anyone, hit a grand slam with Analyze the Odds Monday on New York-bred Showcase Day at Belmont Park. On April 20 at Aqueduct, Dubb claimed Analyze the Odds for $80,000 when he finished fifth by 9 ¼ lengths as the 7-5 favorite under Manny Franco. Just 5 ½ weeks later in his debut for Dubb and new trainer Jason Servis, Analyze the Odds, who was eighth in mid-stretch under Junior Alvarado, rallied past Morning Breez and Javier Castellano to win the 39th running of the seven-furlong $125,000 Mike Lee Stakes – named for the legendary turf writer for the Long Island Press – by three-quarters of a length at odds of 20-1.

Morning Breez, who was 6-1 in the field of eight, was a clear second, four lengths ahead of 3-1 Retonova and Jose Lezcano. Sea Foam, who was 5-2 under Joel Rosario, finished another head back in fourth. [VIDEO REPLAY]

Dubb made $75,000 in purse money with Analyze the Odds’ score, and he may have made up the remaining $5,000 on his investment at the mutuel windows.

Dubb and Servis had already won one of the five other Showcase Days when their five-year-old mare Feeling Bossy, whom Dubb claimed for $62,500 on Oct. 8th, won the $125,000 Mt. Vernon Stakes on grass as odds of 8-1 off a seven-month layoff. She had finished seventh in the $200,000 Ticonderoga Stakes on Oct. 21st in her first start for her new connections before a lengthy rest that obviously paid dividends Monday.

And who knew that Dubb would get his third Showcase winner Monday a half hour after the Mike Lee when Offering Plan, whom Dubb owns with Nantucket Thoroughbreds, Bethlehem Stables and Gary Aisquith, scored in the $125,000 Kingston Stakes?

Heck, Analyze the Odds wasn’t even going to race in the Mike Lee. “When I claimed him, I was hoping for a two-turn, Saratoga type of three-year-old horse,” Dubb said. “I thought he needed a freshening, which was the plan. It wasn’t our plan to run him today, but he was doing so well, Jason said, `Let’s take a shot and see if we can get a piece.’ I never dreamed that piece would be the big piece. He’s really done an incredible job with the horse.”

NYRA/Joe Labozzetta

Lansdowne Thoroughbreds bred Analyze the Odds, a son of Overanalyze out of The Sense Angel by Mineshaft who sold for only $15,000 in October, 2016. He had won a stakes race previously at Finger Lakes last September.

Alvarado, who was riding Analyze the Odds for the first time, let him settle in sixth as 24-1 Ultimate Enticement and Kendrick Carmouche and Aveenu Malcainu, who was adding blinkers and went off the 8-5 favorite under Jose Ortiz, dueled on the front end through a half-mile in a testing :45.07.

Aveenu Malcainu then took the front, but he couldn’t hold off Morning Breez, who rallied from fourth to take the lead. Morning Breez opened a three-length lead and looked home free until Analyze the Odds, closing furiously on the far outside, hit his best stride. “When I asked him to run, he was there for me,” Alvarado said. “He gave me a nice run.”

Analyze the Odds is now four-for-11 with one second, one third and earnings of more than $320,000.

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